In 2022, baijiu enters a new decline cycle?
Wen-wu zou into 2022 years later, no matter from the stock market or from the perspective of the performance of the market, China’s wine market, like trucking, full of drama, the January market start full of depression, and the Spring Festival in February, liquor is also no sales season, market expectations many did not come, and let a lot of people so worried about the development of liquor-making industry, so,Will China’s liquor industry develop upward or downward in 2022?On February 4, the famous investors Dong Baozhen wrote “liquor has fallen into the great cycle of inflection point”, think that liquor-making industry overall sales is not in the 2022 Spring Festival, the young consumer groups began to give up wine, liquor price bubble inflated, and maotai prices has stalled, which fully proves that drops liquor-making industry has entered a new period,It detailed data from past downturns to make the case that the current one will start in 2022.As a senior practitioner of the liquor industry, we need to sort out the ideas and logic of some of the issues discussed by him, so as to truly understand the development trend of the liquor industry in 2022. Is it up or down?Why is the Spring Festival liquor sales season not here?First, timing: From the perspective of industry practitioners, there are reasons why the Spring Festival is not so prosperous this year. The Spring Festival in 2022 is too close to the New Year’s Day, only 31 days apart, resulting in a short sales cycle of the Spring Festival in 2022. The actual period of the Spring Festival that can be used for operation is less than half a month, thus affecting the sales performance of the Spring Festival.The second is sales:Economic environment, although the overall growth in 2021, but the average consumer income, there is no obvious rising trend, on the contrary, in the big bang, added a variety of uncertain factors in the purchasing power of consumers is bound, thus result in liquor-making industry in the sales of the Spring Festival, people begin to choose more economical gift for the Spring Festival,Therefore, liquor sales enthusiasm in the Spring Festival is not as high as in previous years.Third, geographical location: The Spring Festival of 2022 is approaching. Scattered outbreaks of COVID-19 in various parts of China, from Shaanxi province to Henan Province to Tianjin and Beijing, have greatly hindered the market liquidity of the 2022 Spring Festival. On the one hand, the mobility of people across the country has weakened, and the wave of returning home for the Spring Festival has not arrived as scheduled.On the other hand, because of the outbreak and distribution of the epidemic, the market did not show the previous market, so the liquor industry is also affected.Fourth, market issues:Liquor season no near the Spring Festival of 2022, there is another important reason is that since 2020 liquor fever lasted two years, market inventory need to be further digestion, coupled with the influence of the first half of 2021 hot sauce wine, wine sauce of many different price products to market, causing high liquor stocks on the market, need to use a longer time to digest.Therefore, the 2022 Spring Festival liquor market is not prosperous.Did baijiu really enter decline cycle?In 2022, whether the Chinese liquor industry has entered a big decline cycle as Dong Baozhen said, the market will continue to downward consolidation in the future!Here, the author wants to answer the market cycle development trend of liquor industry systematically in the future.Although neither the liquor stock market nor the consumer market had a “good start” as usual in 2022, judging from the development cycle of the liquor industry in the past decades, the development trend of Chinese liquor in 2022 must be upward growth. Why is it so said?From the perspective of industry development cycle: China’s liquor consumption cycle from 2016 13.58 million liters, the market has been in a declining stage for five consecutive years, to 2021, the national output of liquor 7.156 million liters.Looking back over the past 20 years, China’s liquor industry has a 5-year cycle of rise and 5-year cycle of decline. For example, from 1997, China’s liquor industry entered the first period of decline, and around 2003, the liquor industry began to increase volume until 2010, almost according to past experience,There is a rising cycle and a falling cycle every 5-7 years, which is the rule of the liquor industry. Therefore, since the output reached the peak of 13584 million liters in 2016, China’s liquor industry has experienced a 6-year consolidation period. From the overall trend, the liquor industry in 2022 has entered a new growth and volume cycle.It can be said that 2021 is the bottom of the liquor cycle, and the production and sales of Chinese liquor in 2022 should be on an upward trend.From the law of market development:Liquor-making industry in China has entered the new law of development, the market has entered the stage of quality competition from production especially in the started on June 1, 2022 wine industry new gb, after the past many low-end liquor will face due to do not conform to the new gb exit the market, with a higher quality of the liquor will replace this part of the market,Become low-end liquor consumption new trend.Market upward development, has been in the standard to promote the full set of sail.From the perspective of product price space:Into 2022 years of Chinese liquor industry the price of space, because hot sauce, wine and alcohol, wine, hot multiple, outside derived from one thousand yuan to one thousand yuan, the price of liquor space is more and more big, the price clinch a deal the ability more and more high, this provided many new brands and products into the market with sufficient profit and price operation space, therefore,In the future, more high-end products will enter the market, which will further enlarge the sales scale of liquor market.From the perspective of national strategic development:Liquor as the most products with Chinese cultural characteristics and mental characteristics, globalization strategy and state under the globalization process in China, are becoming the elements, on behalf of the Chinese culture to the world in the background of China’s growing impact on the world, become a flag of Chinese products to the world, so, the future in the process of globalization of China’s advance,The liquor industry will be the first to benefit.As a result, the scale of its future increments will be fully unleashed.What kind of development trend will liquor market present?From liquor stock, into 2022 years of Chinese liquor stocks and consumer market as a whole is depressed, but in the long run, liquor market in 2022 will begin after into the second quarter in the overall market development trend will keep industry market growth of 20%, the market price level in 2022, will further strengthen,Especially at the core price of 1,000 yuan, high liquor brands and famous liquor products will be further developed in 2022.From the point of liquor consumption market, although the liquor consumption market is not hot as usual in the Spring Festival, but the overall liquor consumption trend will not change, liquor as a cultural consumer goods, along with the economic recovery and outbreak of release will be activated, the market will be gradually restored in the recovery of the catering industry, the market vitality will start to release,Baijiu is expected to enter the peak season from the third quarter of 2022.From the point of liquor brand development, famous liquor brands will further strengthen the control and influence of the market, but more emerging brand will also start to participate in the competition, in the highly centralized industry brand pattern, emerging brands as flexible operation more easily enter the market, with seeding type into began to participate in the grass and business, with the development of the market trend.Therefore, generally speaking, the development trend of the liquor industry in 2022 is upward, especially after the bottoming in 2021, 2022 is bound to start to climb up, so as to lay a solid foundation for the completion of the “14th Five-year” goal.(The writer is general manager of Beijing Mahatma Brand Planning Co., LTD.)