The trend of green and low-carbon development highlighted China’s power supply and demand in 2022

2022-06-22 0 By

On January 27, China Electricity Council released the analysis and Forecast Report on 2021-2022 National Power Supply and Demand Situation (hereinafter referred to as the report).The report shows that in 2021, the overall situation of power supply and demand in China is tight, the growth rate of electricity consumption achieved double-digit growth, and the installed power structure continues the trend of green and low-carbon development.The report estimates that the whole society will use 8.7 trillion KWH to 8.8 trillion KWH of electricity in 2022, up 5%-6% year on year, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in each quarter is generally rising quarter by quarter.Driven by the rapid development of new energy sources, it is expected that new installed capacity of infrastructure construction will reach a record high in 2022, with around 230 million kw of installed power generation capacity.In 2022, China’s power supply and demand were generally balanced, with power supply and demand tightening in some regions during kurtosis summer and kurtosis winter.In 2021, China’s electricity consumption will reach 8.31 trillion KWH, up 10.3% year on year. The rapid growth of electricity consumption is mainly driven by factors such as the sustained recovery of domestic economy, the low base of the same period last year, and the rapid growth of foreign trade and export.In 2021, China’s electricity consumption will increase by an average of 7.1 percent in two years, with an average growth rate of 7.0 percent, 8.2 percent, 7.1 percent and 6.4 percent in each quarter, maintaining steady and rapid growth on the whole.The primary industry used 102.3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, up 16.4 percent year-on-year and an average growth of 14.6 percent over the two years, the report showed.The secondary industry used 5.61 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, up 9.1% year on year and up 6.4% on average over the past two years.In each quarter, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry increased by 24.1%, 10.6%, 5.1% and 1.1% year-on-year respectively. Influenced by the gradual increase of the base of the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption fell down quarter by quarter.The average growth rate of the electricity consumption of the secondary industry in each quarter was 7.4%, 7.3%, 6.1% and 5.4%, respectively. The decline in the growth rate in the third and fourth quarters was greatly affected by the decline in the growth rate of the high-load energy industry.In 2021, electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector will grow 9.9 percent year-on-year and 7.2 percent on average over the two years.Among them, the total electricity consumption of the four high-load energy industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with an average growth of 6.0% in two years, showing a trend of quarterly decline. The year-on-year growth rate of the fourth quarter was -1.9%.In 2021, the total electricity consumption of consumer goods manufacturing increased by 12.6 percent year-on-year, with a two-year average growth of 6.1 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than the two-year average growth of manufacturing.In 2021, the combined power consumption of other manufacturing sectors increased by 13.9 percent year-on-year, with a two-year average growth of 9.0 percent.In 2021, the total electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry will increase by 15.7% year-on-year, with an average growth of 9.9% in two years, accounting for 1.1 percentage points of the electricity consumption of manufacturing industry year-on-year.Among them, the electricity consumption of some emerging manufacturing industries increased rapidly. The electricity consumption of medical instrument and equipment manufacturing increased by 24.9% year-on-year, that of wind energy original equipment manufacturing increased by 25.4% year-on-year, that of new energy vehicle whole vehicle manufacturing increased by 46.8% year-on-year, that of photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing increased by 91.3% year-on-year.Reflecting the continued transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector.”The decline in the share of the secondary industry was mainly due to the share of the four high-capacity industries decreased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the share of high-tech and equipment manufacturing increased by 0.5 percentage points.It can be seen that in 2021, the proportion of electricity consumption in the service industry, high-tech and equipment manufacturing will increase year-on-year, while the proportion of the four high-capacity industries will decrease year-on-year, reflecting the continued adjustment and optimization of the electricity consumption structure.”Itu statistics and data center deputy director Jiang Debin said.By the end of 2021, China’s installed full-aperture power generation capacity was 2.38 billion kilowatts, up 7.9 percent year on year, according to the report.Industrial enterprises above designated size generated 8.11 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, up 8.1% year on year.The report shows that in 2021, the annual completed investment in power engineering again exceeded 1 trillion yuan, up 2.9 percent year on year, and 16.9 million kw of grid-connected offshore wind power was added.The installed capacity of full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation reached 1.12 billion kW, surpassing the installed capacity of coal power generation for the first time.Full-bore non-fossil energy power generation increased by 12.0% year on year, and coal power generation accounted for 60.0% of the total power generation.The utilization hours of nuclear power, thermal power and wind power equipment increased by 352, 237 and 154 hours respectively.Inter-regional output power increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and inter-provincial output power increased by 4.8% year-on-year.The transaction volume of electricity in the electricity market increased by 20.1% year-on-year.Power coal supply and demand stage imbalance, coal prices hit a record high, coal and power enterprises overall loss.”In 2021, the power structure will continue to be optimized and adjusted, and the trend of green and low-carbon development will become prominent.”Jiang debin said.In terms of investment and new growth, non-fossil energy investment in power generation will account for 88.6 percent of power investment in 2021, Jiang said.Of the new installed power generation capacity, 138.09 million kw was added to non-fossil energy generating capacity, accounting for 78.3 percent of the total installed power generation capacity, up 5.2 percentage points year on year.By the end of 2021, China’s installed full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation capacity had reached 1.12 billion kW, accounting for 47.0% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and exceeding the proportion of coal power generation for the first time in history.The proportion of installed power generation from non-fossil energy was 12.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of 2015, with an average annual increase of 2.0 percentage points.In terms of power generation, full-caliber non-fossil energy generation will reach 2.90 trillion KWH in 2021, up 12.0 percent year on year, accounting for 34.6% of the total power generation, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year on year, 7.4 percentage points higher than 2015, and an average annual increase of 1.2 percentage points.China’s full-caliber coal power generation capacity was 5.03 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 8.6% year on year, accounting for 60.0% of the country’s total power generation.Jiang debin said that in recent years, China’s electricity industry has continued the trend of green and low-carbon transformation, and the effect has been prominent, with the proportion of installed non-fossil energy and the proportion of electricity generation continuously increasing.However, no matter from the installed capacity or from the perspective of generating capacity, coal power is still the most important power supply in China at present, and also the basic power supply to ensure the safety and stability of power supply in China.Therefore, on the one hand, China should continue to vigorously develop new energy;On the other hand, we should vigorously promote the transformation of coal power for energy saving and carbon reduction, flexibility and heating, so as to give full play to the role of coal power as a cushion.”In order to ensure the safety of power supply, coal power projects need to be moderately developed during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The main idea is to strictly control the scale of increase, construct clean coal power projects to play the role of supporting the bottom and ensuring the safety of power supply.Coal power units should operate as much as possible in accordance with the idea of ‘increasing capacity and reducing capacity’, increase installed capacity to meet the requirements of power balance, reduce generating capacity, and give priority to clean energy generation, so as to reduce carbon emission intensity per unit of generating capacity.”Said Zhang Lin, deputy director of planning and development department of ITU.The Central Economic Work Conference stressed that economic work in 2022 should give top priority to stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, and all sectors should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability to provide the main support for the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society in 2022.Considering the economic situation at home and abroad, such as electrical energy alternative drive electrification base level rising steadily, the previous year before and after the change and other factors, combined with a variety of methods to predict the efficiency of the whole society, and the analysis and forecast of electric power supply and demand of the expert’s anticipation, the whole of society in the whole year of 2022 is expected to power consumption 8.7 trillion KWH – 8.8 trillion KWH, year-on-year growth of 5% to 6%,In each quarter, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society showed a rising trend quarter by quarter.Wang Yixuan, director of the statistics and data center, said electricity consumption is expected to grow 3.5-4.5 percent year-on-year in the first half and 6.5-7.5 percent in the second half.On the supply side, Mr Wang said.China’s installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 2.6 billion kW by the end of 2022, up about 9% year-on-year.Driven by the rapid development of new energy sources, the total installed power generation capacity of non-fossil energy sources will reach about 1.3 billion kW, accounting for 50% of the total installed capacity, up nearly 3 percentage points from the end of 2021, and reaching half of the total installed capacity for the first time.Under normal hydropower output, it is estimated that coal-fired power generation equipment will be used for about 4,480 hours a year, and the share of coal-fired power generation in China’s total power generation will drop to about 57 percent.Supply and demand situation.With the continuous adjustment and upgrading of China’s consumption structure and industrial structure, the double peak of load in winter and summer gradually becomes normal.As the global epidemic continues and the external situation becomes more complex and volatile, it is imperative to ensure power supply while actively promoting energy transformation.Macroeconomic, fuel supply, temperature, precipitation and other factors bring great uncertainty to the power supply and demand situation.According to the power demand forecast, based on the analysis of key factors such as temperature, water inflow and power and coal supply, and taking into account the newly installed capacity, inter-provincial and inter-regional power exchange, power generation output and reasonable reserve, it is estimated that the overall power supply and demand will balance in 2022, and the power supply and demand will be tight in some regions during peak-peak summer and peak-peak winter.Editor: Huna